Bitcoin-gold correlation hits six-year high, but analysts question whether equity decoupling will last

Bitcoin and gold moved more closely together during the latest bond market selloff, with their 90-day correlation reaching a nearly six-year high, according to data from Bitwise.

The correlation rose after yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasurys moved higher and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increased purchases of long-dated bonds. Bitcoin rose 22.4% over the following week — its biggest weekly gain since March 2024 — while gold added about 5% and stocks fell, André Dragosch, director of research for Bitwise in Europe, noted in a client memo on Wednesday.

The last comparable reading was in 2020, Dragosch said, around the time governments and central banks responded to the Covid crisis with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Bitcoin was also negatively correlated with the U.S. Dollar Index at the end of August, based on Bitwise’s 90-day measure, implying that headwinds for the dollar are tailwinds for bitcoin and gold, according to the firm.

“When things get serious and macro forces are strong, investors are discriminating less and less between bitcoin and gold as they navigate rising currency debasement risks,” Dragosch said. “In those scenarios, bitcoin has recently started to look like an amplified version of gold.”

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